Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Long term prediction: Microsoft loses its monoply power
This is not a prediction for the 2007 New Year, but I believe that in the next 5 to 10 years Microsoft's influence on the computer/IT industry will be very much diminished. The transition to open source and open data formats has already started in Europe and developing countries looking to save money and is picking up some momentum in the US.
The new DRM features of Vista will turn off many users who are more interested in using their computers for information technology than for watching movies and listening to music. Any security advantages of DRM will probably be countered by more problems with interoperability with third party software and other operating systems (dual boot!).
Some pressure for the transition from Windows to open source will be the fear of some foreign governments of security issues with a closed operating system. Several years ago Microsoft had to provide Windows source code to the Chinese government.
Microsoft has been very effective in fighting back against open source using threats of patent infringement and "influencing" government officials. All large corporations "influence" government officials, so I am not particularly picking on Microsoft here. I also acknowledge that Microsoft has a responsibility to their stockholders to make a profit. BTW, I sold my Microsoft stock in 2005 because I was unhappy with their pushing proprietary document formats - not a financial decision.
I believe that in the next five years that more local and national governments will either use more open source software or completely switch over to open source. I expect this to be a slow and steady process. I also believe that organizations not using open source software will eventually find themselves with both economic and technical disadvantages.
The new DRM features of Vista will turn off many users who are more interested in using their computers for information technology than for watching movies and listening to music. Any security advantages of DRM will probably be countered by more problems with interoperability with third party software and other operating systems (dual boot!).
Some pressure for the transition from Windows to open source will be the fear of some foreign governments of security issues with a closed operating system. Several years ago Microsoft had to provide Windows source code to the Chinese government.
Microsoft has been very effective in fighting back against open source using threats of patent infringement and "influencing" government officials. All large corporations "influence" government officials, so I am not particularly picking on Microsoft here. I also acknowledge that Microsoft has a responsibility to their stockholders to make a profit. BTW, I sold my Microsoft stock in 2005 because I was unhappy with their pushing proprietary document formats - not a financial decision.
I believe that in the next five years that more local and national governments will either use more open source software or completely switch over to open source. I expect this to be a slow and steady process. I also believe that organizations not using open source software will eventually find themselves with both economic and technical disadvantages.
Sunday, December 31, 2006
My take on Microsoft/Linux patent issues
Since the Novell/Microsoft deal, more of us worry about Microsoft legal attacks on Linux using some of their (unnamed) patents. This is troublesome to me for at least two reasons: Linux and other open source software allow me to build systems for customers at a lower cost point (good for my business), and I enjoy developing on a Linux box for Linux deployments.
For Linux on the desktop, I believe (but I am not a lawyer) that as long as I (and other Linux users) typically buy a commodity PC with Windows and then install dual boot Linux, then how could I possibly be infringing on Microsoft patents: I have a paid up license for Windows on the same PC that I am running Linux on. The situation for server side Linux is less clear, but server side Windows is much less important to Microsoft's cash flow than the desktop.
Accurate predictions are difficult, but I would not be surprised if through corruption of politicians some countries put up legal roadblocks to using free (as in GPL) and other open source software. Long term, I believe that these countries will be at a competitive disadvantage over other countries where businesses of all sizes and individuals can continue to lower IT costs while benefiting from collective software development.
It is really simple: diversity of commercial and open source software, with fair competition is good for business. As a reluctant Microsoft customer, I would ask Microsoft to publicize which of their patents that they think Linux violates - provide real details. Of course they will not do this because I believe that their strategy is to threaten but to not take action. Computer professionals can push back against Microsoft by favoring companies like IBM that take a more fair and balanced approach to commercial and open source software. We can all help by making small contributions to organizations like FSF and the EFF.
For Linux on the desktop, I believe (but I am not a lawyer) that as long as I (and other Linux users) typically buy a commodity PC with Windows and then install dual boot Linux, then how could I possibly be infringing on Microsoft patents: I have a paid up license for Windows on the same PC that I am running Linux on. The situation for server side Linux is less clear, but server side Windows is much less important to Microsoft's cash flow than the desktop.
Accurate predictions are difficult, but I would not be surprised if through corruption of politicians some countries put up legal roadblocks to using free (as in GPL) and other open source software. Long term, I believe that these countries will be at a competitive disadvantage over other countries where businesses of all sizes and individuals can continue to lower IT costs while benefiting from collective software development.
It is really simple: diversity of commercial and open source software, with fair competition is good for business. As a reluctant Microsoft customer, I would ask Microsoft to publicize which of their patents that they think Linux violates - provide real details. Of course they will not do this because I believe that their strategy is to threaten but to not take action. Computer professionals can push back against Microsoft by favoring companies like IBM that take a more fair and balanced approach to commercial and open source software. We can all help by making small contributions to organizations like FSF and the EFF.
Monday, October 16, 2006
And the winner is...Linux Desktop!
I know that I have been harping on Operating System issues lately but due to working requirements of VPN clients, special development licenses for 3rd party tools, etc., I have been spreading my time fairly evenly between Ubuntu (Gnome desktop), Mac OS X, and Windows XP. For my work flow, Linux is just simply better except for:
- Windows: TortoiseSVN (love it!)
- OS X: OmniGraffle drawing program (love it even more!!) and the TexShop Latex wrapper
Labels: Linux
Monday, October 09, 2006
Praise for older software
I like this :-) I added the underlined emphasis:
I blogged a few years ago about this: in the distant future, I wonder if people will be using ancient software that has been thoroughly tested over the centuries, is bug free, and seems 'just right' feature-wise.
Now that the old days are long gone and word processors come preinstalled with every machine, why should we care about this remnant of history? The answer is that remarkably LaTeX is much better suited for composing and distributing most types of documents than any other modern word processor on the market that I am aware of. Just like programming languages tend to converge towards Lisp because it got things right the first time around, so do the Word Processors tend to converge towards LaTeX.In the last few months almost all of my writing has been done using LaTex and most of my development in Common Lisp (using another old program: Emacs). I love to experiment with new technology, but I use whatever is best for a job to support my family.
I blogged a few years ago about this: in the distant future, I wonder if people will be using ancient software that has been thoroughly tested over the centuries, is bug free, and seems 'just right' feature-wise.
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
A bit of history, the Slackware 11 release, and software power
I downloaded parts of Slackware over a 2400 baud modem connection in 1993 - my start using Linux. So, I noticed the announcement of Slackware 11 with some nostalgia. I very much appreciate the fine work of Patrick Volkerding. (Even if I am now an Ubuntu user :-)
Software power: for me, Linux + other open source = Power
I am not talking about client side Linux, rather being able to build services using Linux and quality infrastructure software from the Apache Foundation, the PostgreSQL group, etc.
In the 'new economic era' of globalization and driving costs towards zero, Linux and open source play a huge role in staying competitive.
Software power: for me, Linux + other open source = Power
I am not talking about client side Linux, rather being able to build services using Linux and quality infrastructure software from the Apache Foundation, the PostgreSQL group, etc.
In the 'new economic era' of globalization and driving costs towards zero, Linux and open source play a huge role in staying competitive.
Labels: Linux, open source
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